Hear the full interview
From 1:25 in Monday’s episode of Nick Luck Daily. Press play to start at the interview.
NBC’s Matt Bernier believes Breeders’ Cup 43 was a weekend to savour for fans of the sport, but a frustrating one for American punters, after the favourites dominated at Keeneland.
“I think you’ve got to look at it two different ways: one from a sport standpoint, one from a gambling standpoint, and they’re two wildly different outcomes,” Bernier told Nick Luck. “From a gambler’s perspective, a bit underwhelming. I believe the biggest price we had in the two days was five to one. But the reason we ended up with such short prices was because the superstars showed out. The big names, the big outfits were all billed as the headliners going into it, and every one of them delivered.”
He explained why so many British visitors were happy while American punters were not. “I’ve always come from the idea of bet a little to win a lot,” he said. “When you get a string of short prices in the pick fives and pick sixes, your return is very modest. But you make up for that with a weekend like this, when you see the superstars go out and do what they did.”
Sovereignty ‘the horse’
Sovereignty looks set to be Horse of the Year again after winning the Classic in his final start, with The Puma second and Knightsbridge third. Bernier thought the race was effectively over once Napoleon Solo missed the break and left Knightsbridge alone in front. “For a moment down the backside, you thought, boy, the fractions Knightsbridge is getting away with,” he said. “But you very quickly realised with the way Sovereignty was moving, even out in the clear carrying a bit of ground, that if you were Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott, you could not have been more thrilled.”
He felt Mott had made it clear on the day which of his two runners he rated higher. “When you hear Bill Mott speak the way he has about this horse, it certainly sounds like he puts him right there with the Cigars of the world, the horses he’s trained over his Hall of Fame career.”
T O Elvis ‘a revelation’
Bernier gave T O Elvis’s Sprint win over Englishman the nod as the performance of the weekend. The Japanese sprinter had not run since winning the Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby day in May. “If you had taken T O Elvis out of that race, you could make the argument that Englishman had the performance of the Breeders’ Cup,” he said. “They were four lengths clear of the rest. He just happened to run into a horse that is genuinely a revelation. They went wickedly fast early on, and T O Elvis was ninth half a mile into the race. He was the only horse making up any ground. He is a special animal.”
“If you ran the race ten times, Notable Speech probably wins seven or eight of them.”
Matt Bernier on the Mile
Notable Speech unlucky in the Mile
Deterministic gave Miguel Clement his first Breeders’ Cup winner in the Mile, turning the tables on Notable Speech, with Lake Forest third. Bernier stressed he did not want to take anything away from the winner, but felt the runner-up was the best horse in the race on a turf course that favoured those racing on the inside. “For Notable Speech to get out as late as he did, on the widest part of the track, and make up the amount of ground he did at the very end, I would like to think that if you ran the race ten times, Notable Speech probably wins seven or eight of them,” he said.
He was delighted for Deterministic’s jockey, Kendrick Carmouche. “He is one of the nicest fellas you’re ever going to meet,” Bernier said. “He’s been around a long time in New York and rides for most of the big connections periodically, but very rarely is he the 1A. The fact he’s been attached at the hip to this horse for the better part of two years is a great story.”
Bacio, who made all in the Turf Sprint for Wesley Ward, produced “probably the most thorough beating” of the weekend in Bernier’s view, while Nitrogen confirmed she is “simply better” than Fully Subscribed in the Distaff for Mark Casse. Chad Brown had a double with Kathynmarissa, who ran down Gimme A Nother in the Filly & Mare Turf, and Ways And Means in the Filly & Mare Sprint.
‘I was wrong on him’
Neither Bernier nor Nick fancied Benvenuto Cellini in the Turf, and Bernier admitted he had paid for it as Ryan Moore found a gap late on. “Even with an eighth of a mile to go, it doesn’t look like there’s anywhere to go,” he said. “The slightest hole opens up, and this horse kicked on like a freight train. He looked every bit the Derby winner. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong. I was wrong on him, and he made me pay.” The win took Aidan O’Brien to 28 Group or Grade 1 winners this year, equalling his own record.
Europe swept the juvenile turf races on Friday. Sun Goddess beat Green Empress in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Haffner beat Folsom Blues in the Juvenile Turf, and Libertango won the Juvenile Turf Sprint for George Boughey. “It’s one thing to be shut out. It’s another thing to effectively be non-existent,” Bernier said. “You just throw your hands up and go, you guys are better than us at this. It feels like there’s better quality coming from Europe now. Some of your A-stringers are coming over and making a mockery of the American turf runners.”
He was less keen on the late switch that put Billy Loughnane on Libertango in place of Flavien Prat. “From a gambler’s standpoint, I would call it questionable at best,” he said. “This race is part of multi-race bets, and we’re not getting this news until 20 or 30 minutes out. It’s not a controversy by any means, but it’s another one of those things in horse racing where we’re our own worst enemy. Just clean the protocol up a little bit.”
Hughes and Emphatic
Hughes stayed unbeaten in five starts in the Juvenile for Bob Baffert, holding off American History and Salahudin. “I don’t know if I’d go as far as to say a likely Kentucky Derby winner, but I don’t have anything to knock about him,” Bernier said. “When they got to his throatlatch at the top of the lane, he basically shrugged them off and found more. He’s a very likeable horse.” Emphatic gave Brendan Walsh a first Breeders’ Cup winner in the Juvenile Fillies. “She seemingly is head and shoulders above everyone else in her generation,” he said. “I don’t think distance will beat her.”
His biggest disappointment was Blue Bolt in the Filly & Mare Turf. “She got quite warm leading into the starting gate and never looked comfortable at any point,” he said. “Maybe it truly was the end of a long campaign.” In the Classic, he was most let down by Forever Young. “When the race unfolded the way it did, and he was second sitting just off Knightsbridge, it would have been difficult not to think he had the catbird seat. He was quite flat.”
