Breeders’ Cup 2026: race-by-race insight from connections

The Breeders’ Cup gets under way at Keeneland on Friday, and over the past fortnight Nick Luck Daily has spoken to trainers, owners, jockeys and the people who look after the horses. Here’s some insight from those conversations ahead of the meeting, race by race in running order. All times are UK.

Friday 30 October

Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.55pm

Libertango has the draw George Boughey wanted, in stall three. “It’s something we can’t control, but if we were to pick a post position, we would have probably picked three or four,” he said. “So to be where we wanted to be is huge.” The Lowther winner has kept her condition through a long season. “She’s stronger and heavier than ever and doing more work. So, very happy.” Flavien Prat rides, with Billy Loughnane unable to do the weight.

Hell Of A Spin is Adrian Keatley’s first Breeders’ Cup runner, and has placed in the Molecomb, the Gimcrack and the Middle Park at 66-1, 18-1 and 33-1. “He’s a bit of a terrier-like mind. He likes to get his head down and try his heart out when you need him,” Keatley said. Mikey Sheehy, who has his first Breeders’ Cup ride, has a task from stall 11. “He’s been an underdog all year, and he’s always shown up,” he said. “I don’t think anyone believes how good he really is. If he breaks smart, we’ll get in as best we can and ride him for a bit of luck more than anything.”

“Hopefully, next Friday, after the Juvenile Turf Sprint, they’ll all be scratching their heads wondering why they didn’t back him before now.”

Adrian Keatley on Hell Of A Spin

Moonrise, drawn one with Oisin Murphy riding, is the pick of Andrew Balding’s two juvenile fillies. “She looks to be a natural-speed filly,” Balding said. “Dropping back half a furlong, having set some pretty strong fractions in the Cheveley Park and still run a good race, suggests it should suit her.” Maddy O’Meara, in charge of the team at Keeneland, agrees. “They’ve both travelled over well,” she said. “They’re both exciting. Moonrise, more so.”

Brickyard Belle, unbeaten in two starts and drawn four, right outside Libertango, is “probably one of the best chances for America”, according to Miguel Clement. “At Saratoga she won from stalking, the other day she won the Matron from dead last. She’s got a great turn of foot if needed,” he said. “George Boughey’s filly is very talented, but so is ours.”

Primetime Emmy, an Australian-bred filly who has travelled from Australia to Europe and now America, has the widest draw in 12 for Francis-Henri Graffard. “She looks wonderful,” he said. “Draw 12 out of 12 is not ideal, but it’s worth a shot, and we have nothing to lose.”

Juvenile Fillies, 7.35pm

Scarlett Begonia was bred by Keeneland’s Gatewood Bell with Gray Lyster, and he is hoping for a repeat of 1987, when his family bred Epitome to win this race at around 50-1. “My grandfather was speechless,” he said. “I think on national TV he just said, ‘It’s a miracle.’ And it was.” Scarlett Begonia is around 25-1 and has never run over two turns. “She’s got a lot of heart,” Bell said. “She’s not going to embarrass us. Manny Franco from the rail, she’s got a chance.” Her trainer Brad Cox added: “We’ll break running from the one-hole and see how it goes.”

Foxiest, Cox’s other runner, is drawn three, and he has high hopes for her. “Foxiest is very, very classy. I do think she’ll handle two turns, being by Gun Runner and out of a Breeders’ Cup champion,” he said. “Maybe she’s a filly who could take us to the Kentucky Oaks. I think she’s set up to take a big move forward.”

Juvenile Fillies Turf, 8.15pm

Amusingly takes on Sun Goddess in what Juddmonte’s Barry Mahon called “the two-year-old race of the year”, drawn ten, right alongside her. Francis-Henri Graffard dropped the filly back to seven furlongs to win the Lagardère, and she now steps back up to a mile with Colin Keane riding. “In France they tend to go slow and sprint, and we just didn’t feel a mile at that tempo would suit her,” Mahon said. “She’s a forward-going filly, likes to get on with things, and in America they jump and go from the gate, so I think that will help. They’re both stepping into the unknown going a mile.” Graffard believes she has the class to win it. “She’s a wonderful filly, and her win at Longchamp was just incredible, beautiful to watch,” he said. “I’m glad Colin knows her now, because she can be a bit keen and she needs everything to go her way. But she has the quality to win a race like that. I hope she doesn’t have to produce her turn of foot too early.”

Scommessa Sicura, Andrew Balding’s other juvenile filly, has found the journey harder than Moonrise. “She’s been really tired, actually. It has taken it out of her a little bit because she is quite small,” Maddy O’Meara said. “But eating and drinking, she’s just a little bit shell-shocked, I think, to be fair.”

Citrus Springs is a recent arrival to Miguel Clement from Joseph O’Brien. “It’s still very much the honeymoon phase,” Clement said. “We don’t know each other quite as well as we should. It’s a tough race, and the European contingent is formidable.”

Green Empress won the Debutante under Dylan Browne McMonagle, who rides her again, and has since won the Prix Marcel Boussac. Jane Mangan, speaking on the show, called this “the best turf two-year-old fillies race in the world this year”.

Juvenile Turf, 9.45pm

Folsom Blues, the National Stakes winner, was bred to be sold, but Al Shira’aa Racing couldn’t let him go. “We fell in love with this guy, pleaded with the boss if we could hold on to him, and it’s worked out,” said Kieran Lalor, who manages the operation’s interests. He expects the colt to cope with Keeneland’s tight turns. “He’s a very relaxed horse now. I think he’ll cope with it fine,” he said. “He’s gone around plenty of bends at Leopardstown and Gowran, not the same as here, but he’s got the pace to keep up as well.” Dylan Browne McMonagle picked him as the ride that excites him most this week. “He’s a very exciting colt,” he said. “I think the race setup in America should suit him fine, with the strong speed usually on. He likes to relax and he’s got a good kick when you need him.”

Sale Shark, drawn nine, steps up from five furlongs to a mile, and Hugo Palmer is trusting his pedigree. “From a pedigree point of view, he actually has no right to be running over five furlongs,” he said. Palmer was also taken with Aidan O’Brien’s view that a horse who gets six furlongs at Ascot can get a mile round Keeneland. “If Aidan says it, then I’m not going to argue with Aidan O’Brien. But not only has he got to get it, he’s got to improve five or six pounds for it.”

Oscar, second in the Summer Stakes, has William Buick riding for Miguel Clement despite a draw in 12. “I think we ran second to Godolphin and William Buick in four Group 1s in the last five weeks, so if you can’t beat them, you might as well join them,” Clement said. “He’s got a good chance, and I expect him to improve from his second to his third start.”

Great Barrier Reef is Ryan Moore’s choice of Aidan O’Brien’s team, despite the widest draw in 14. “He ran a very good race, and we think he’s gone the right way since then,” O’Brien said. Of Haffner, drawn four, he added: “Whether it’ll be too tight around here for him or not, we’re not sure, because he’s a big, long-striding horse, but he’s in good form.”

Saturday 31 October

Dirt Mile, 5.10pm

Further Ado, drawn one under Flavien Prat, was considered for the Classic, but Brad Cox believes this is his best chance of a Grade 1. “I think everything would have to go perfect for him to win the Classic. He stacks up with the Dirt Mile field a little better,” Cox said. He isn’t convinced the colt is a Keeneland specialist, either. “Listen, I don’t really buy into all that he’s that good at Keeneland. He does like Keeneland, that’s a positive.” Asked to pick one from his whole team, Cox said: “Further Ado is the shortest price, that’s the easy answer.”

Turf Sprint, 5.48pm

Miss Yechance, the Prix de l’Abbaye winner, failed to meet her reserve at the Keeneland Championship Sale this week, and Jack Nicholls keeps the ride. Karl Burke has watched her strengthen all season. “She’s not the biggest, as we know, but she’s a bull of a filly,” he said. “She’s a lot stronger filly now. I think she has taken an upward turn physically, and that’s transpired onto the form on the track as well.”

Nicholls, 20, has his first Breeders’ Cup ride and the widest draw in 14. “The Americans are obviously very fast out of the gates compared to Europeans, and from 14 we’ll probably have to ride for a bit of luck and slot in where we can,” he said. “Hopefully they go hard up top.” He calls her “a horse of a lifetime”. “To ride in a Breeders’ Cup so early is what everyone works a whole career for,” he said.

Filly & Mare Turf, 7.04pm

Blue Bolt, unbeaten this season, stays against her own sex rather than taking on Notable Speech in the Mile. Barry Mahon said the start of the Keeneland mile was part of the reason. “If you get drawn a little wide there, they’re quick into that first bend. There’ll just be a lot of carnage, and your race can be over very quickly,” he said. “I think you have a little bit more time over the nine and a half to get organised.” She has still been drawn wide, in stall 12. Maddy O’Meara, who travels with the Balding horses, admitted she was surprised by the choice. “I was surprised we went that way, but I think it’ll be alright,” she said. “Her draw is not ideal, but then she’s got that extra furlong to get in, hopefully, in the right position.”

Andrew Balding says her long season is his main concern, but he is happy with what he has seen. “It’s so difficult to read at this time of year,” he said. “She still looks well. She’s had a clip, so obviously her coat’s changed, but she seems relaxed, and that’s the main thing. Her last work a week ago at Kingsclere was very strong.”

“If she could do a Breeders’ Cup win, there would definitely be tears.”

Maddy O’Meara on Blue Bolt

Red Letter, Ger Lyons’ filly, is drawn four with Dylan Browne McMonagle riding. “All year we’ve sort of felt that nine and a half around Keeneland would be right up her street,” Mahon said. “Whether she’s quite up to winning a race of that calibre, I don’t know, but if she could get involved in the finish, it’d be great.”

Jancis was third behind Gimme A Nother at Woodbine, and Willie McCreery is happy to drop back a little in trip. “I don’t think she sees out the mile and two properly,” he said. She wants quick ground. “So the drier the ground, the better for her as well.” Billy Lee rides. “The faster they go, the better it’ll suit us,” McCreery said. “She’ll fly around that track, and hopefully turning in we can get on the outside and come flying down the outside.”

Gimme A Nother, drawn one under John Velazquez, is one of a growing number of South African-bred horses thriving in America with Graham Motion. Her owner Jess Jell sees the trip as a chance to prove a point. “I think it’s the dream of proving that our horses are good enough to compete on the world stage,” she said. Gimme A Nother missed the race last year with an injury the week before, so Jell is taking nothing for granted. “I say all of this touching wood, because I know how this can change,” she said. “But at the moment, I can tell you that she’s been doing everything Graham’s asked of her, and she seems strong and happy.”

Bless the Broken and Stellify run for Brad Cox. “I love the distance for Bless the Broken,” he said. “Stellify has an outside post, so break running and see what happens.”

Mile, 8.22pm

Qirat, Ralph Beckett’s Prix Daniel Wildenstein winner, has made the field, with Colin Keane riding. A wide draw ended his chance at Del Mar last year, and Barry Mahon thinks the course will suit him. “I think he’ll love it around there,” he said. “He’s just a tough, hardy horse.”

Deterministic was beaten a length and a quarter by Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile, and Miguel Clement believes a stronger pace will change things. “It was a bit of a falsely run race, and a long stretch. I think with a more truly run race, the dynamics will change a bit,” he said. The tactics are simple. “That’s 100% my only instructions: break, go forward.” Clement couldn’t be happier with him. “At this time of the year, I wouldn’t trade places with anyone else right now.”

Lake Forest has been at Keeneland since finishing second to Rhetorical in the Turf Mile over course and distance earlier this month, and is drawn two with Cieren Fallon riding. That race was run at a slow pace, and William Haggas’s assistant trainer Isabella Paul is hoping for a stronger gallop. “If that’s the case, then hopefully we can pick up the pieces in the home straight, because he’s just got that phenomenal finishing speed,” she said. “Notable Speech is going to be tough to beat, but he’s training great. He’s happy.” He has a cheeky side, too. “He just bit me while we were jogging up,” she said. “But we passed the jog-up, so that was fine.”

Distaff, 9.01pm

Immersive, last year’s Juvenile Fillies winner, faces a big test for Brad Cox. “She’s going to need to step up,” he said. “It’s obviously a very solid race, but she drew well.”

Turf, 9.41pm

Survie, winner of the Christophe Clement Turf at Saratoga, is drawn wide in 11, and George Boughey feels she is being overlooked. “I think she is a bit forgotten,” he said. “She goes back, and a mile and a half has been the key to her. Fillies have a decent record. The last time it was run at Keeneland, the first two were fillies. It’s a high-class race and she needs to step forward, but I don’t see any reason why she can’t.”

Far Bridge flies the flag for the home team for Miguel Clement, under John Velazquez. “In terms of the American horses, I think he has just as good a chance as anyone here,” Clement said. “But the Europeans have brought a remarkable crew. We’re well drawn, and he’s versatile, so it’s very much let the gates break and let Johnny call an audible.”

Ethical Diamond, last year’s winner, defends his crown from stall one, and Willie Mullins has been planning for this all year. “We’ve been working back from here all along, all season,” said Mullins’ assistant David Casey. “A real strong pace suits him best, and hopefully we get that in America.” Dylan Browne McMonagle, who rode him to victory at Del Mar, said: “If things all fall his way and he gets the right setup, I don’t see why he can’t show his hand again. I rode him yesterday in a little bit of work and he feels super.”

Benvenuto Cellini is Ryan Moore’s pick from Aidan O’Brien’s team, ahead of Diamond Necklace, and is drawn two. “We thought this would really suit him here,” O’Brien said. “He ran well in the Arc, but it just didn’t go according to plan.”

Bay City Roller, drawn 13 with Oisin Murphy riding, is a horse George Scott trusts completely. He was frustrated by the draw at first, but has come round to it. “Looking at the field and the way to ride this track, I’m not sure it was the end of the world,” he said. “There are very few mile-and-a-half turf horses that actually ping the gates and say, ‘Come on, let me have it,’ and he’s one of them. If he breaks clean, the draw’s irrelevant.” Scott has also done his homework on the ground. “I spoke to Frankie and a couple of the American jockeys and trainers here, and they said it will not be summer-fast ground, no matter what the weather is,” he said.

“I trust him, and he means everything to me. He’s really set my career on a great trajectory.”

George Scott on Bay City Roller

Map Of Stars, the Wolferton winner at Royal Ascot, made the field for Francis-Henri Graffard and Wathnan Racing, but has the widest draw in 14. “I know he hasn’t won a Group 1, but his form is very strong,” Graffard said. “He needs a strong pace, like we had at Royal Ascot. Last year there was a lot of pace and Ethical Diamond won the race, so anything is possible at the Breeders’ Cup.”

Classic, 10.25pm

Sovereignty and Knightsbridge run for Godolphin and Bill Mott, and Godolphin USA’s Michael Banahan can’t split them. “The Classic is the race we haven’t won yet, and we’re so relieved that we have two horses fit and ready,” he said. Sovereignty won the Whitney and Knightsbridge won the Pacific Classic. Banahan doesn’t buy the idea that Knightsbridge is there to set the race up for his stablemate. “I think both horses are going in there with equally good chances,” he said. “Thankfully, both of their running styles complement each other.” Junior Alvarado stays on Sovereignty.

“It’d be fantastic if both of them were coming down to the eighth pole and both there with big chances.”

Michael Banahan, Godolphin USA

The Puma was scratched from the Kentucky Derby, but Gustavo Delgado Jr believes the colt is peaking again. “I think he’s peaking, I would say,” he said. “I think he’s been more effective coming off that pace. He always gets that little rush movement that we like to see. Whether that’s gonna be enough or not, we will see. But I think he’s a happy horse. He’s liking it here.” Taking on the Derby winner, Golden Tempo, could be sweet. “We really have that in the back of our minds. It might be a sweet revenge or something. We don’t know.”